Evan Schuman's StorefrontBacktalk

Many other efforts have tried tackling these payment issues, with Bling making a good-faith effort—against extreme odds—along with ISIS—the AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile effort—that started out touting almost no changes to the existing structure, including promising to not use existing telecom bills. The group seems to have backed off from its earlier position, as retailers expressed unhappiness.

StorefrontBacktalk IT Columnist Nick Holland this week made a powerful argument on why Google’s efforts to become a payment power won’t go anywhere. (This is Google as Google, as opposed to Google as Android phone creator.)

Holland’s argument is strong indeed, but he might have focused too narrowly on Google literally mastering payments. Google as a search powerhouse has the ability to make connections between consumers and retailers and payment players.

That connection power may prove to be much more powerful—and lucrative—than directly handling the transactions, so don’t count out Google just because it can’t out-payment Visa.

Then again, that’s the same argument Google and Yahoo made in the early days of E-Commerce—that they would be E-Commerce Gods and that retailers would be powerless to make any sales without their help. It seems that retail brands are a lot more powerful than that. PayPal is doing quite well, but Visa hasn’t been hurt by it.

The sad truth is that Visa, MasterCard and others have poured in billions of dollars over the years—with a lot of bank support—and created an immensely sophisticated payment network. Replacing it won’t be easy, and there are a lot of reasons to not even try.

Mobile payments will indeed happen, probably about 2 to 3 years from now in a meaningful way. But it won’t happen because of handset technology. The current payment players and the telco players and the major retailers will all have to agree to make less money than they want to, in an attempt to make the next evolutionary payment change.

Hence, the irony: Apple and Google and Verizon will be side-players here. It’s the Wal-Marts, Chase Manhattans and Visas that will make this happen. And they’re simply not yet ready.